The International Institute for
Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in
Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the
Balkans. IFIMES has analysed current events in Montenegro in view of early parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 March 2009.
The most interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.
Montenegro and parliamentary
elections:
20 YEARS OF MILO
ĐUKANOVIĆ'S REGIME?
Montenegro became an independent
state when the Assembly of the Republic of Montenegro adopted the Declaration
of Independence on 3 June 2006 based on the results of the referendum held on
21 May 2006. Prior to that Montenegro was a constituent republic of the State
Union of Serbia and Montenegro. The referendum on independence was
controversial in many aspects. Montenegrin citizens residing in Serbia were not
allowed to vote while Montenegrins residing in any other state had that right.
Irregularities in the realisation of the referendum were "given the
blessing" from Slovak diplomats and EU high officials Miroslav
Lajčák and František Lipka. As Javier Solana's
"protege" Lajčák was awarded for the job he did in
Montenegro with the position of high representative of the international
community to Bosnia and Herzegovina - and proved to be the worst of all high
representatives to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Lipka was also well awarded for his
job in Montenegro, although he is still involved in "blackmailing"
the Montenegrin civil society, forcing it to co-operate with him and to cover
up with their activities his misuse of EU funds (privatisation).
Milo Đukanović's regime mobilised air
carriers and other transportation companies to transport voters to the
referendum venues, the cost of which was borne by the state, national black
reserves and businessmen close to the ruling regime. Taking into account
dubious circumstances under which the referendum was carried out, the
difference of only a few thousand votes in favour of independence casts a dark
shadow over Montenegro's independence.
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WITH 16
ELECTION LISTS
In Montenegro 498,285 citizens will have the right to
vote at the forthcoming early parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 March
2009. They will have to choose from among 16 election lists:
● Coalition for European Montenegro - Milo
Đukanović (DPS-Democratic Party of Socialists, SDP-Social Democratic
Party, HGI-Croatian Civic Initiative and BS-Bosniak Party) ● Coalition
for a Different Montenegro - Dr. Goran Batrićević (LP-Liberal Party
and DC-Democratic Centre) ● People's coalition (NS-People's Party and
DSS-Democratic Serbian Party) ● Serbian National List (SSR-Party of
Serbian Radicals, SSN-Party of Serb People and Citizens Groups) ●
Coalition for "Bosniaks and Muslims Together As One" (BDP-Bosniak
Democratic Party and DZBM-Democratic Union of Bosniaks and Muslims) ●
Albanian coalition of Democratic Union in Montenegro (Mehmet Bardhi) and
Albanian Alternative (Gjerg Camaj) ● Albanian coalition
"Perspektiva" ● New Serbian Democracy - Andrija Mandić
● Movement for Changes - "We can" - Nebojša Medojević
● Socialist People's Party - Srđan Milić ● Democratic
Union of Albanians - Ferhat Dinosha ● Montenegrin Communists ●
Party of Pensioners and Persons with Disabilities in Montenegro ● Forca -
Nazif Cungu ● Party of Democratic Prosperity ● Fatherland Serbian
Party - dr. Aleksandar Stamatović - "For True Serbs"
For years, Prime Minister and DPS President Milo
Đukanović has built his authority on DPS, a strong police apparatus
and the National Security Agency (ANB) as the successor of the notorious State
Security Service, as well as through the media loyal to his regime, especially
national television and radio. Analysts have noted that under those
circumstances Montenegrin citizens and even some high politicians (DPS) are
being held hostages to Milo Đukanović's regime.
Numerous unresolved crimes were committed by the
regime. On 27 February 1993 members of Serbian paramilitary troops under the
command of Milan Lukić, who is in the Hague today (though not for this
crime), and with the logistic assistance from the state of Serbia kidnapped a
group of passengers from the Belgrade - Bar train no. 671. Today this crime
against civilians (18 Bosniaks and one Croat) is almost forgotten. In
Montenegro a court trial was held only against Nebojša Ranisavljević
who was sentenced to 15 year imprisonment for war crimes against civilian
population.
The regime was also responsible for the deportation of
Bosnian refugees and ethnic cleansing in Bukovica, war crimes in Croatia and
Bosnia and Herzegovina, cigarette smuggling, dubious privatisation and
financial transactions as well as constructed accusations of terrorism made
against 18 Albanians from Malesia, a part of Montenegro with the majority
Albanian population.
There are other unresolved crimes, such as the
assassination of Duško Jovanović, editor-in-chief of the opposition
daily newspaper "Dan", who was murdered at the doorstep of his office
more than four years ago, and the murder of police inspector Slavoljub Šćekić.
MILO ĐUKANOVIĆ - JUST
ANOTHER MANIPULATING POLITICIAN
During the fateful period of
1988/89, the communist regime in Montenegro was replaced with Milo
Đukanović's regime including Đukanović's political ally
Momir Bulatović and his Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). Thus,
instead of replacing the totalitarian communist regime, a new totalitarian
regime led by Milo Đukanović was formed - and it has remained in
power for 20 years. Analysts have noted that during the period of
Đukanović's regime Montenegro has not established real democracy but
the so called "democratura", i.e. apparent democracy. The government
which has uninterruptedly ruled Montenegro as a country in transition for 20
years can definitely not be regarded as democratic, although it may appear as
such at first sight.
Opinions on Prime Minister Milo Đukanović
differ. The opposition politician Slavko Perović believes that "Milo
Đukanović is just another manipulating politician and a dedicated
follower of Slobodan Milošević. Just like Milošević, he was
and is interested only in power; he is a man of the past and an outdated
politician".
Dr. Milan Popović, Professor at the Faculty of
Law in Podgorica, described the change of power in 1988/89 with Milo
Đukanović's regime as a very negative process: "Not only did
they assume power in one of the most violent and negative overthrows in the
history of Montenegro which took place in 1988/1989, but, what is more, they
have managed to preserve this regime based on corruption and violence until
today. Thus they only increase the possibilities for another violent and
revolutionary change in power in Montenegro with uncertain or even negative
results."
Dr. Milan Popović was summoned to the hearing on
27 February 2009 by the State Prosecutor General of Montenegro for having
expressed his suspicion about the existence of organised crime among the
highest representatives of government in Montenegro, which represents an open
form of pressure on free intellectuals and citizens who are not loyal to the
ruling regime. Moreover, during the election campaign the government exerted
pressure on teachers and all those who are financed from the state budget,
calling them to express their loyalty and vote for DPS at the forthcoming
elections. Even non-government organisations in Montenegro are mostly
controlled or influenced by the ruling structure.
Analysts point to the possibility of widespread
protests against the current DPS government in Montenegro, not forgetting the
fact that Milo Đukanović's regime was established on the street in a
nondemocratical way and with a strong support from Slobodan
Miliošević. Street protests will probably determine also the destiny
of Milo Đukanović's regime. Analysts do not exclude the possibility
of politically motivated violence and liquidations.
MIREK TOPOLÁNEK MISUSES EU PRESIDENCY
The EU has become actively involved
in Montenegro's election campaign, expressing support to DPS which has been the
country's ruling structure for 20 years. This is also confirmed by the visits
of high officials from Montenegro to Brussels and other European cities, such
as the reception of Milo Đukanović by EU High Representative for
foreign policy Javier Solana, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn and
others. The visit of EU President and Czech Prime Minister Mirek
Topolánek to Montenegro on 11 March 2009 represents the culmination of
EU's bias in favour of Montenegrin present government during the country's
election campaign. Topolánek has misused EU presidency to promote Milo
Đukanović. Why did Topolánek of all the West Balkan states
decide to visit Montenegro during the pre-election period?
The IFIMES International Institute considers it inappropriate
for the March 2009 European Council to discuss Montenegro's application for the
status of EU candidate country during the country's election campaign since
that would represent its direct support to the DPS regime in Montenegro. IFIMES
also considers it highly inappropriate for the highest European officials to
receive the leaders of that regime in Brussels or visit Montenegro during the
period of election campaign.
Analysts recommend that the EU should take measures in
order to distance itself from Milo Đukanović's regime by reducing
meetings with Montenegrin officials and rejecting visas to high representatives
of the regime, while at the same time efforts should be made to achieve the
liberalisation or abolishment of the visa regime for the citizens of
Montenegro.
"PRVA BANKA" -
OWNERSHIP OF THE ĐUKANOVIĆ FAMILY
"Prva
banka" is a large commercial bank in Montenegro owned by the
Đukanović family and their friends. Three months ago the bank
received a three-month loan in the amount of EUR 44 million on the basis of a
government decision. The aim of the intervention was to save "Prva
banka" from bankruptcy. The bank encountered financial difficulties after
it bought land at some elite locations at the coast and could not find the investor
to finance the construction of buildings due to the financial and economic
crisis.
According to the information received by IFIMES,
Đukanović wants to sell "Prva Banka" to the state and thus
perform a "selling-to-oneself" transaction.
DISCRIMINATION AGAINST SERBS IN MONTENEGRO
Montenegro is a country without
majority population. Officially, ethnic Montenegrins dominate in the ruling
structure where other minority nations are represented only for decoration
purposes. The situation is most difficult for ethnic Serbs who represent one
third of the population since they are exposed to strong assimilation
processes. Unless Serbia takes measures in order to protect Serbs in Montenegro
and resolve the problem of double citizenship, their position will aggravate
further.
In its recent report, the US State Department has made
some serious remarks regarding the situation in the judicial system and the
prosecution service in Montenegro as well as on the widespread corruption in
the society. It also mentioned police maltreatment of suspects held in
detention, sub-standard prison conditions and misuses of apprehension and
pre-trial detention.
According to the latest data from Transparency
International, Montenegro is ranked 85th together with Albania, India,
Madagascar, Panama, Senegal and Serbia.
VICTORY IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE
OPPOSITION
The Montenegrin opposition did not
unite in a political block before the elections in order to act as a strong
opponent to the current regime, and it does not stand a chance to win the forthcoming
elections. Nevertheless, it is important that the ruling coalition does not win
more than a half of votes and that elections are carried out without the
election fraud which was characteristic of all previous elections in
Montenegro.
Ljubljana, 18 March 2009
International Institute for Middle-East
and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) - Ljubljana
Directors:
Bakhtyar Aljaf
Zijad Bećirović, M.Sc.